Things aren't going real well here in the U.S. right now. Banks have failed, the stock market has become some kind of bizarre yo-yo, the "Big 3" here in the America are in big trouble. I'm struggling to find the humor in this situation but so far I'm not finding much.
Everywhere you go, you hear people talking about how bad things are. Honestly, if you still have a job things aren't much different than they were a year ago. We are dealing with some inflation, I mostly see it at the grocery store. But on the other hand, gas is under $2 again for the first time over 5 years (I guess it dipped under once or twice, but this is the first time in 5 years I've paid less than $2 for gas). I'm sure its a lousy time to be in any commission business, or own a small business, but by-and-large most of us who have jobs are in about the same boat we were before.
Nonetheless everywhere you go, people are walking around staring at their shoes. Just staring down and muttering "its over man" and bits about inflation, deflation, hyper-inflation, regular-flation, supersized-flation, the combo-meal-flation, and other terms invented on CNBC. Frankly, I think we might be giving the people who tell us about this on television a little too much credit.
The first week of June this year, oil was around $140/barrel. I was in a hotel room watching CNBC tracking it like a sports score. I'm still not sure why. And they were telling us by the end of the year that we would see $200/barrel oil, and in the next few years gas prices around $8-$12/gallon. It never hit $200/barrel. I believe it topped out at $144, but I'm not exactly sure. It was right around $144 though.
Right now oil is $51.25/barrel. It has been as low as $48 and change per barrel. Some sources are saying it could go as low as $40/barrel or even $35/barrel by the end of the year. This is great right? Cheap gas for everybody? No, not according to CNBC. This is deflation, which apparently is the worst flation of them all. I listened to this the other day a little stunned and confused. Maybe they're right. Maybe this is deflation and its terrible. But they weren't right about the $200/barrel oil by the end of this year. If the only thing that's good is cheap gas, I'm going to do my best to enjoy it.
Switching gears... in 1976 there was a film called Rocky. It was written by, and starred Sylvester Stalone. It was made for the paltry sum of 1.1 million dollars. It grossed 117 million. It was nominated for 9 Oscars and won 3, including best picture. It launched a series of six films, all of which are pretty much worth seeing, provided that you are a man. It might help to be American too, I'm not sure. I will mention that Rocky IV did not age well after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Did I mention it was written by Sylvester Stallone? I'm not sure this would be a selling point for a movie these days.
I was disappointed there was not a Rocky marathon on television this past 4th of July because it is such a great American story. In case you've been living in a cave insulting our new president for the last 30 years, the story is basically about a man who is too stubborn and stupid to stay down when he is obviously beaten. Nothing is more American than that. The plot of Rocky II is the story of a man who is too stubborn and stupid to stay down when he is obviously beaten. The plot of Rocky III is the story of a man who is too stubborn and stupid to stay down when he is obviously beaten. Rocky IV and Rocky V bare a striking resemblance to the previous plots. Rocky Balboa differs a bit, in that the name does not contain number, so I have to break up the numbering scheme I had used so far to tell you that it is the story of a man who is too stubborn and stupid to stay down when he is obviously beaten.
My prescription for the nation is to watch a Rocky movie. I'd start with the first one and watch as many as you have to until you can stop staring at your shoes. We invented the airplane. We put men on the moon. We invented the solid body electric guitar and multi-track recording. We will weather this storm too.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
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